嗯…

季风低压？

99S INVEST 250417 1800 13.0S 71.6E SHEM 25 1007

散了散了，不是戈门您是南太偷渡来的吗

99S INVEST 250418 0000 13.7S 71.2E SHEM 25 1007

TPXS11 PGTW 180600
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99S (S OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 18/0530Z
C. 14.39S
D. 72.42E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED (NEAR - UNDER) COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET/PT
YIELDS 1.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DESSINO

99S INVEST 250418 0600 14.0S 71.2E SHEM 25 1007

TPXS11 PGTW 181213
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99S (S OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 18/1130Z
C. 13.94S
D. 71.56E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT YIELD 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MUSE

99S INVEST 250418 1200 14.4S 71.3E SHEM 25 1005

Zone of Distrubed Weather located far off the north-east of the Mascarene archipelago :
Convective activity associated with the low-pressure area centered around 14S/72E has persisted since yesterday, but remains limited to a convergence area in the southeastern part of the system, out of phase with the circulation center. This Friday morning's 0408Z ASCAT-C pass shows a very broad, elongated circulation, with winds reaching 30-35 kt locally under the convective area and in the pressure gradient away from the center, but only 10-20 kt in the rest of the circulation.
The system is now subject to strong north-westerly wind shear associated with a massive dry air invasion in the mid-levels. In addition, low-level convergence remains very poor on its equatorial side. These unfavorable conditions are expected to intensify and persist over the next few days, preventing any cyclogenesis.
The latest deterministic model runs all suggest that the system will gradually fill in from this weekend onwards. The GEFS ensemble does not suggest any deepening into a tropical storm, and only a few overreactive members of the EPS are still considering cyclogenesis, which seems unlikely.
There is no longer any risk of tropical storm development off the north-east of the Mascarene archipelago in the next 5 days.