Details of Tropical Low 30U at 9:30 am ACST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 11.1 degrees South, 138.9 degrees East , 260 kilometres east northeast of Nhulunbuy and 415 kilometres northeast of Alyangula .
Movement: southeast at 16 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Low 30U is moving southeast in the Gulf of Carpentaria. It has a Moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone later today through to Sunday in the Gulf of Carpentaria. It will be slow moving on Saturday before taking a turn to the west on Sunday to approach the Northern Territory coast on Monday.
Gales are forecast south of the centre but not expected to occur on the Queenland Gulf coast.

97P INVEST 250418 0000 11.2S 139.2E SHEM 30 1001

TXPS26 KNES 180105
TCSWSP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97P)
B. 17/2330Z
C. 10.7S
D. 138.0E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...A LLCC CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
THAT LIES LESS THAN 75 NMI AWAY FROM THE EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A NORMALLY
DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT
IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE
CENTER LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...HOSLEY

中心卡在雷达盲区，不过看得出来在转

TPPS11 PGTW 180305
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97P (SW OF PAPUA)
B. 18/0240Z
C. 11.27S
D. 139.03E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DESSINO

命名在即

GFS预测巅峰996百帕

TPPS11 PGTW 180555
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97P (SW OF PAPUA)
B. 18/0530Z
C. 11.17S
D. 139.63E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF
COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DESSINO

TXPS26 KNES 180559
TCSWSP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97P)
B. 18/0530Z
C. 11.2S
D. 139.7E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T1.5/2.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED LESS THAN 75NM
FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET AND PT ARE
1.5 BASED ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE LLCC POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE

97P INVEST 250418 0000 10.9S 138.9E SHEM 35 1001

97P INVEST 250418 0600 11.2S 139.7E SHEM 35 998

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 3:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 11.3 degrees South, 139.7 degrees East , 295 kilometres west northwest of Weipa and 310 kilometres east northeast of Nhulunbuy .
Movement: southeast at 13 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Low 30U is moving southeast in the northern Gulf of Carpentaria. It will be slow moving on Saturday before taking a turn to the west away from the Queensland coast, and then approach the Northern Territory coast by Monday.
The chances of developing into a tropical cyclone increases for a period on Saturday and Sunday but gales are not expected to occur on the western coast of Cape York Peninsula.

【讨论旋风】南太平洋旋风SH312025【台风吧】_百度贴吧